One torpedo from Auckland Council takes aim at both sustainable development and sensible guidance
In passing, it may be worth linking the first time I raised this as an emerging issue back in mid-2022. I didn't get full implications we're now seeing covered in this article, but tried... https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/129492959/an-unrealistically-hot-forecast-for-2100-could-hurt-your-property-values
Thanks Troy. There is discussion of this point in the guidance (Box 3 on page 41). They note
- SSP2-4.5 H+ reaches the same SLR just a few decades later than SSP5-8.5 H+.
- SSP5-8.5 H+ still not take into account the risks of further polar ice changes leading to more rapid SLR
- SSP5-8.5 is less likely than thought a decade ago, but still possible
- high-end impacts may still result from a lower emissions scenario
and several other points.
To which I would add that even a 17% tail-end risk (used in the H+ scenarios) is pretty high.
Dynamic Adaptive Pathways are recommended and discussed - I guess the question is whether this will lead to councils adopting them.
Meanwhile, councils are coping with organised climate denial groups pressuring them to drop the higher-impact scenarios.
In passing, it may be worth linking the first time I raised this as an emerging issue back in mid-2022. I didn't get full implications we're now seeing covered in this article, but tried... https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/129492959/an-unrealistically-hot-forecast-for-2100-could-hurt-your-property-values
Thanks Troy. There is discussion of this point in the guidance (Box 3 on page 41). They note
- SSP2-4.5 H+ reaches the same SLR just a few decades later than SSP5-8.5 H+.
- SSP5-8.5 H+ still not take into account the risks of further polar ice changes leading to more rapid SLR
- SSP5-8.5 is less likely than thought a decade ago, but still possible
- high-end impacts may still result from a lower emissions scenario
and several other points.
To which I would add that even a 17% tail-end risk (used in the H+ scenarios) is pretty high.
Dynamic Adaptive Pathways are recommended and discussed - I guess the question is whether this will lead to councils adopting them.
Meanwhile, councils are coping with organised climate denial groups pressuring them to drop the higher-impact scenarios.