#COP28 Day 12.1: Draft final text drops

It bombed and gets called "a buffet of dead rats"

The draft final text from the COP28 Presidency dropped overnight in Dubai. It’s fair to say it bombed, with the EU and Pacific nations saying it simply isn’t good enough.

The Guardian provides a fast summary – for its environmentally minded audience that shares perspectives with many of the nations that must be onboard for consensus to be achieved. WaPo (with a large climate journalism team) digs deeper and includes details of the US climate envoy John Kerry’s position, that the text “does not meet the test” and is a “charade.”

Wellington-based activist David Tong has been there before and gave an excellent interview with Corin Dann on Morning Report. Highly recommended summary of where COP28 is at and what to expect – including reasons for optimism that we might see a more acceptable text tomorrow. His encapsulation of the problem includes notable phrasing that the steps required for a liveable planet many nations seek are being offered only as “options” – essentially a “buffet of dead rats.”

What are the key dynamics that need insights and solutions?

WaPo’s article on the consensus process noted that many, including Mary Robinson and Al Gore, are asking whether that consensus processes are still fit for purpose. Could moving to a three quarters majority – still very demanding – prevent a few nations from holding back progress?

But in reality, real progress also comes when finance and business are moving on. That’s prevented if carbon markets, as well as the pricing and incentives they create, are dysfunctional or scandal-ridden. That’s why Article 6 negotiations are important.

Who pays for the “phase out"?

One of the remaining big problems getting consensus is that many nations, most notably the African block and India, have typically taken a position that if the fossil fuel phaseout is happening, the developed nations that accrued vast wealth over the century and a half of industrial emissions should pay for their development paths to continue as if fossil fuels remained cheap and available. John Kerry can’t easily push a solution to this problem through the US Congress, nor would the entire EU be ready to pay.

New Zealand is reported to be in a block of nations working to produce an acceptable text. No one knows when and how this will end, but it seems certain not to be ‘on time.’ That’s normal, but it is worrying the path of our planet is determined by sleepless nights of negotiations.