I’d mentioned that OPEC was panicking - and it looks like the original source was leaked communications reported in the Guardian (rather than WaPo which I’d seen).
We shall soon see the result. While we wait, I’m releasing this post a bit early since the long-awaited draft of the final text from the COP28 President is due out any minute.
Did saying “Later is too late” matter?
Meanwhile, hundreds of prominent CEOs, scientists and other leaders were transparently calling for what is actually required to fulfil the Paris Agreement’s goals and protect the global climate system. The global effort called itself the B team, and included on the NZ end: Helen Clark, Jacinda Ardern, James Shaw, Tory Whanau and the director of Te Pūnaha Matatini Centre of Research Excellence in Complexity - Priscilla Wehi. (I’m involved in and partially supported by Te Pūnaha Matatini.) Did I miss any?
Did this have much effect? I think the preliminary answer is no, but it possibly did. It was timed with a bonus episode of Christiana Figueres’ Optimism and Optimism podcast that made the potential impact seem very hopeful, include recognition from COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber. But according to Google’s news search, it received zero media uptake by wire services or other major news services that I can locate. It was mentioned in the middle of a European news site’s green pages and did get an article in one eco-business news website.
It’s therefore not clear the transparency will have much value as the negotiations proceed into rush to agree on a final text via the rules for obtaining a consensus.
Al Jaber had proposed to finish by the middle of Tuesday local time (before this post is scheduled to appear), but that looks unlikely given progress on CarbonBrief’s tracker (clunky and possibly dated, but useable if you really want to know how this works). Here’s what CarbonBrief’s editor onsite at COP28 recorded (twitter.com/DrSimEvans), I’m guessing a lot of detailed work programmes won’t be agreed and will be reduced to decision text with next steps? The Article 6 mechanisms for international pricing and offsets are particularly important. We shall soon see more…
Ongoing fallout from lifting NZ’s oil and gas exploration ban?
Meanwhile, the outcry over New Zealand’s end of its ban on oil and gas exploration is also generating some news. From a global petroleum geology standpoint, I continue to think this will prove to be an effective political trap. The leaders in the government can be predictably labelled as extremists by NGOs while my instinct is that the writing was on the wall for NZ’s industry due mainly to costs of offshore exploration and production being higher than other options, particularly if subsidies were removed and taxes increased.
What works to keep the integrity of the global process on track?
This won’t get any easier next year in Azerbaijan, and I suspect that leaks and having one NGO admitted to negotiations to report as an observer is having more impact than open letters and the explosion of human attending COP29. All the people creating an illusion of effectiveness may have trouble working through the noise that turns news cycles into clouded realities to see what’s really going to make a difference? The question remains what the best way is to accelerate progress, knock down the obstacles and maximise integrity. The most legitimate suggestion may be that all efforts are good efforts, but we do need diverse and innovative options.
Common sense wins in the end?
Simplest is best when it comes to integrity, and it turns out simple has also gone global at COP28. Restoring New Zealand’s native forests, now framed as Recloaking Papatūānuku, launched globally over the weekend (email) including a COP28 event and address by Lord Stern. They have an intended scale of 2 million hectares and a clear business case. I’ll put my bets on this initiative and Rewiring Aotearoa (earlier post) as winners worth some effort and support.
I’m very happy to but should note I’m not “at” the COP, just monitoring it from home, and trying to go a bit deeper on the analysis around integrity.
Great Stuff Troy. You interested in a short Zoom interview to run on The Kaka on your experience at COP 28?